Computer Simulation Modeling of Recreation Use: Current Status, Case Studies, and Future Directions

_________________________________________________ This report compiles information about recent progress in the application of computer simulation modeling to planning and management of recreation use, particularly in parks and wilderness. Early modeling efforts are described in a chapter that provides an historical perspective. Another chapter provides an overview of modeling options, common data input requirements, and useful model outputs. The bulk of the report consists of case studies that illustrate a broad array of recreational situations and management applications for simulation modeling. A final chapter describes some future directions for modeling work. Although simulation of recreation use is already a tool for planning and management, its utility could be greatly enhanced with further work in software development, increased understanding of appropriate methodologies, and greater attention to model verification and validation. Cover captions: (1) Use levels of campsite clusters in a portion of the John Muir Wilderness, based on output from a computer simulation model. (2) Computer-edited photograph of hikers on the trail to Yosemite Falls, used to obtain visitor evaluations of hiker density. (3) Schematic diagram of the top layer of a simulation model developed for Glacier Point, Yosemite National Park. development of computer simulation modeling of recreation use as a tool for park and wilderness management. The grant was used to bring together people who had worked or were working on simulation of recreation use in two workshops: to support a collaborative project in the John Muir Wilderness, California, and to support data gathering related to development of a General Management Plan for Saguaro National Monument, Arizona (work that is not reported here). The first workshop was held in Tucson, AZ, March 19 to 21, 2003, to examine the utility of visitor simulation modeling to park planning and management. The School of Renewable Natural Resources at the University of Arizona, and the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute hosted the workshop, which was attended by a selected group of academics and agency personnel from the Survey, and Parks Canada. Major topics discussed at the workshop included the historical context for simulation modeling; two current modeling approaches—Extend and RBSim; other simulation modeling approaches; data collection needs and issues; and identification of possible applications for planning and management. A second workshop was held in September 2003 at the National Park Service's Denver Service Center to inform Park Service planners about the opportunities and benefits of using visitor monitoring and simulation in the development and evaluation …